Hope and handicrafts: traffic lights fight with 12 billion euro household hole

Hope and handicrafts: traffic lights fight with 12 billion euro household hole

The traffic light coalition fought this Friday to reach an agreement in the new budget draft. A huge hole of 17 billion euros was originally planned. The aim was to reduce this to 9 billion euros. But the ultimate agreement led to a deficit of 12 billion euros, which is still three billion less than initially planned.

Minister of Economics Robert Habeck commented on this in the report from Berlin. His words reflected the uncertainty and the pragmatic procedure of the government: "You will still be able to find three billion. But we haven't found it now. It's a bit ... Boah, how should I say ...

hope of the traffic light coalition

• A deeper look at household cleaning shows that the principle of hope dominates the traffic light coalition. You are relying on a reinforcing economy and falling interest.
• The approach with Uniper, the nationalized energy supplier, is also interesting. The coalition plans that Uniper will pay around 300 million euros more to the federal government in 2025 than originally accepted. The shortening of the provision for the failure of tax revenue in the EU Energy Crisis contribution also brings 200 million euros in additional scope.

Another example of the hope of the traffic lights: the federal grants to Deutsche Bahn. A trick is applied here: 4.5 billion euros are shown as equity, while an additional three billion euros are awarded to the train as a loan of the federal government. As a result, both remain outside the debt brake.

Autobahn GmbH could also benefit from receiving federal grants as loans. Autobahn GmbH currently has no income because the truck toll is not being paid to it, but this could change. The solution would give the traffic light time, but would pass the problem on future governments.

global minor edition as the last hope

With the remaining 12 billion euros, the traffic light coalition relies on the principle of global minor edition. These are funds that were assigned to the individual departments, but were not spent in the budget year - for example because projects failed. A risky plan, especially if the economy is not going again as expected.

Another potential problem is that this strategy of the global minor output is strongly dependent on the fact that no unexpected costs occur and actually projects that remain. However, if the economy does not attract as expected and if unexpected expenses should occur, the budget of the traffic light coalition could get serious difficulties.

The reactions and views

The public looks at this financial maneuver with excitement and wonders whether the traffic light coalition can achieve its goals or whether it will have to adjust again in the coming months. It remains to be seen whether the measures initiated will be sufficient to reduce the budget deficit to an acceptable level, or whether the finance minister has to call up again for a budget exam.

The further course will show how robust German finances are set up and whether the optimistic approach of the traffic light coalition bears fruit. Experts are shared of the opinion of the effectiveness and sustainability of the measures taken. However, one thing is certain: the coming months will be decisive for German financial policy.

historical parallels to the current budgetary policy

A look into the past shows that similar situations in German history are not uncommon. The Federal Republic experienced a comparable budget crisis in the 1970s. After the economic boom of the post -war period, there were significant budget problems, especially after the 1973 oil crisis. The Federal Government under Chancellor Helmut Schmidt also tried to stabilize the financial situation through tricky financing solutions and the principle of hope. Similar to today, attempts were made to use government investments and loans to stuff financial holes.

The difference to the current situation is in the global economic situation. While the 1970s were characterized by an energy crisis and inflation, the challenges are more complex today and, in addition to economic problems, also contain health crises such as Covid-19 pandemic, and geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

background information on the budget crisis

The current budget crisis of the traffic light coalition has a variety of causes. An essential factor is the economic recession triggered by coron apandemy, which made drastic state aid programs necessary. These programs led to an unprecedented debt of the federal budget. In addition, increasing interest rates also burden budget planning. For example, the European Central Bank (ECB) has repeatedly raised interest rates to counteract inflation, which increases the financing costs for new debts.

In addition, there are the financial requirements of the energy transition, which were additionally tightened by the Ukraine crisis. The enormous volatility on the energy markets and the unsafe in gas and oil supply tightens the budget. The rescue and nationalization of large companies such as Uniper also resulted in considerable costs, which also put a strain on the household cash registers.

expert opinions on the budget situation

Various financial experts are critical of the current budgetary approaches of the traffic light government. Marcel Fratzscher from the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) warns of a short -term patchwork policy: "Sustainable financial policy does not mean to stuff holes overnight, but to create long -term financial stability. The current approach only creates short -term scope, but shifts the problems into the future." <

also Clemens Fuest from the IFO Institute criticizes the current approach: "It is dangerous to rely on future economic relaxation and economic recovery.

These expert opinions underline the need for a sustainable and future -oriented financial policy in order to cope with the challenges of today and to ensure long -term stability.

Current statistics and data on the budget situation

According to the Federal Statistical Office, the debt of public budgets in Germany at the end of 2022 was around 2.3 trillion euros, an increase of 7.3 % compared to the previous year. The debt rate, i.e. the proportion of debt in the gross domestic product (GDP), was around 69 %. These statistics illustrate the challenge of which the federal government is facing when it tries to reduce the budget deficit and at the same time make urgently needed investments.

In addition, a survey by the Institut for Demoscopy Allensbach shows that 58% of German citizens are skeptical whether the government can achieve its financial goals without further tax increases or savings. This indicates a significant loss of trust that the government has to cope with.

There are also questionable numbers on the part of the economy. The IFO business climate index, an important early indicator of economic development, fell again in September 2023, which indicates a deterioration in economic prospects. This could further delay the hoped -for recovery of the economy and the associated additional income.

For more information and latest messages, please visit Destatis , diw and ifo institut .

- Nag