Demographic change: falling birth rate worldwide - Subsahara Africa as a key region

Demographic change: falling birth rate worldwide - Subsahara Africa as a key region

Development of the world population: New preliminary calculation forecast acceptance from 2084 despite falling birth levels

The world population will continue to grow, although women get fewer children worldwide than 30 years ago. The latest preliminary calculation of the United Nations (UN) clearly shows the decreasing trend of birth level in all regions of the world. The average number is currently 2.2 children per woman. Due to the time that need demographic processes, the world population is expected to reach their maximum of around 10 billion people in 2084. After this point in time, the falling birth rate is overtaken by the increasing number of deaths, which will not only lead to aging but also to shrinking the world population.

According to the Middle estimates of the UN, the absolute number of people worldwide will continue to increase up to this point. Subsahara Africa is viewed as a key region, according to Dr. Frank Swiaczny from the Federal Institute for Population Research (BIB). Although many countries have already seen an excess of deaths, the birth level in this region is still 4.3 children per woman on average. Even if the birth level should drop to two children per woman by the end of the century, the population in Subsahara Africa will grow from the current 1.2 to 3.4 billion people. The future of the world population therefore depends significantly on the development in this region.

The reason for this growth lies in the very young age structure, explains Jan Kreutzberg, Managing Director of the German Foundation World Population (DSW). In Subsahara Africa, more than 40 percent of the population are under 15 years old. Many girls still get children there early, who cannot take care of them appropriately. Tenage pregnancies often lead to the end of the school career and prevent training and an independent income. Nevertheless, there is enormous potential among the female population, which is half of the world population. Investments in education, education and access to contraceptives not only contribute to stability and security, but are also an investment in the future.

Equalizing women plays a crucial role for sustainable population development in Subsahara-Africa, emphasizes Catherina Hinz, director of the Berlin Institute for Population and Development. Only if girls and women have access to education, work and health care can they lead to a more self -determined life, even with family planning. At the same time, equality between the sexes in regions with low birth rates must be further improved. A fairer distribution of care work is not only important for gender justice, but also for the better coping with an aging population.

This new advance calculation of the United Nations gives an insight into the future development of the world's population. It shows that although the birth level decreases worldwide, the number of people will continue to grow due to demographic change for the time being. Subsahara Africa plays a central role in this and investing in equality for women is crucial for sustainable population development. It is important to use this information in order to develop strategies to cope with the challenges of future populations and to ensure a stable and safe future for everyone.