How emotions shape voting behavior: A look at the calculation

How emotions shape voting behavior: A look at the calculation

Berlin (ots)

Current studies by the IFO economic research institute take an informative view of the reasons for the strong influence of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the Bavaria Party (BSW) in the old federal states. Unlike often assumed, the encouragement to the AfD is not primarily based on an objectively poor economic situation. Rather, it turns out that there is a widespread feeling of the voters, especially in East Germany.

This knowledge questions the common assumption that material poverty has a decisive influence on the election behavior. It is often assumed that support for right -wing populist parties is directly related to economic difficulties. But reality is more complex: the current dissatisfaction seems to be due to a subjective perception.

The role of the perceived disadvantage

The AfD supporters do not necessarily see themselves as poor, but often have a strongly "legal awareness" that is characterized by unjustified disadvantages. These voters feel that they are neglected compared to other groups. A frequently expressed feeling is that your own contribution to society is not adequately recognized, while others, especially migrants, are perceived as illegally favored.

It is also important that the IFO points out that the question of why people choose these parties could initiate an exciting political discussion. Instead of concentrating exclusively on the explanation of the election behavior of the middle, research should also investigate what traditional popular parties such as the CDU and SPD makes attractive for their voters. Such an uniform thinking could clarify how voters develop in Germany.

The comparison of the electorate is remarkable. While the support for the AfD in an environment of perceptions of injustice and feelings of the underrepresentation is growing, the SPD and CDU could come under pressure in the near future to rethink their politics in order to address a broader spectrum of voters again.

economic facts vs. subjective perception

A central result of the study is that it is ultimately the subjective feeling that influences who responds to populist promises. Voters who feel treated unfairly tend to choose parties that offer them comfort and a voice. Here not only the mere income counts, but rather the feeling of your quality of life. This perception is often driven by emotional and social factors.

The situation also reveals that patriots are not materialists. They appear for values ​​that have nothing to do with economic advantages. These voters are looking for a political home that gives them the feeling that they are respected and heard in society. This is a fact that will be important for political discourse in the future.

The IFO study suggests that the causes of the popularity of the AfD are to be found in a deeply seated discomfort within certain population groups. Relationship between claims and reality in one's own life can only be addressed effectively if politicians react to it. The political landscape is changing, and it is likely that the traditional parties are also forced to react to these moods of mood and opinion.

The emergence of the populist voices

social inequality and perception

Social inequality in Germany has been increasing for years. Despite a stable economy and a relatively low unemployment level, there are deep trenches between different social groups. In this context, a survey of the Economic research institute ZEW from 2023 that about 40 % of the respondents in East Germany feel that they remain behind their western German fellow citizens. This perceived inequality could thus be a supportive basis for the AfD electorate.

A widespread opinion among these citizens is that political decisions do not represent them sufficiently and their specific needs and worries are not taken seriously. In addition, data from Federal Statistical Office that in many East German regions the average income is lower than in the West, which also increases the perception of inequality. This discrepancy helps to ensure that resentment towards politics and other social groups, such as migrants, increase.

political perception and the role of the media

The media play a crucial role in the perception of political issues and thus also in opinion formation. Reports often focus on extreme views, which makes the views of the voters of the AfD appear more legitimate. Reporting on topics such as immigration and social security can often lead to distorted perception. The German wave reported on the tendency of many media to reflect the voices of the population inadequately, which results in a discrepancy between the concerns of people and the political agenda.

This discrepancy could also cause vicious cycle: If people don't feel heard, they are looking for alternatives to the traditional parties. The AfD positions itself here as the mouthpiece of these dissatisfied voices, which promotes its support in populated but economically disadvantaged regions.

nationwide surveys and voter behavior

Current surveys show an idea of ​​split opinions in the German population. According to a survey of the infratest dimap from the beginning of 2023 stated that they regarded the AfD as 'a serious party'. This number illustrates how widespread support for the AfD is also among non-East Germans.

The demographic analysis shows that support for the AfD is particularly high under voters with a lower level of education. Here, 47 % of the respondents between the ages of 18 and 39 stated that they are positively hired to the AfD. This raises questions about the effectiveness of political education and integration and shows the need to achieve people as a whole and to enable them political participation.