Tensions between Israel and Iran: Possible Warning Shot Or Escalation?

Veröffentlicht: 21. April 2024, 12:02 Uhr

Von: NAG Redaktion

The Israelis apparently made a warning shot towards Iran, although they did not officially confirm anything. The alleged military campaign on Friday morning indicates that it was not a retaliation for the Iranian attack from the weekend. It seems that the Israelis want to let Iran know that they can meet them at any time and anywhere, but shy away from an escalation. The reaction of the Iranians in the morning, where they played down the attack and made fun of it, gives hope that the current conflict could be ended for the time being.

Both Iran and Israel want to keep their military face. For Iran, the bombing of the consulate in Damascus was a step too far for which Israel was held responsible. Since the conflict between Israel and Hamas still lasts in the Gaza Strip, both sides have coordinated their military steps precisely. Both in Tehran and in Jerusalem, one obviously tries to contain the conflict and prevent it from becoming an uncontrollable regional surface burn. The damage in both countries was minimal.

Nevertheless, the situation remains extremely fragile, especially in view of the attack near Isfahan. There is not only an important air force base, but also the largest Iranian nuclear research center. After Iran's rocket attack on Israel, this center was mentioned as a possible goal for a retaliation measure. Israel has been torquading the nuclear upgrade of Iran for years. A larger attack that would hit the regime in Tehran more than a surface bombardment would be very difficult and probably required the support of the USA.

Nevertheless, Israel cannot be prescribed by his western partners, not even by US President Joe Biden. Biden is said to have asked Benjamin Netanyahu to be satisfied with the successful defense against the Iranian attack and to recognize that Iran cannot harm Israel. Federal Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and her British colleague Cameron traveled to Israel to ask Netanyahu to rethink a possible retaliation. It has been shown that Israel is not left alone, with support from Jordan and possibly even Saudi Arabia. Without this support, 99 percent of the first Iranian attack could not have been stopped. However, Israel's friends in Tel Aviv apparently found little hearing, since the decision for the counter -strike had soon been made.

With the quick reaction, Israeli leadership has made it clear that it will not accept an attack on her territory. The restoration of her deterrent is vital for Israel and has become even more important on October 7 since the terrorist attack of the Hamas supported by Iran, since the Israeli secret services were surprised. Israel was not allowed to show any weakness. Now it is clear that the time of the deputy wars and old shadow wars is finally over, which makes the already tense situation in the region even more explosive.

The following table shows an overview of the most important information:

This table gives an overview of the parties involved, the date of events and the effects. It becomes clear that the damage was minimal, but the situation remains extremely fragile. In particular, the Iranian nuclear research center in Isfahan represents a possible goal for attacks.

The exact background and details of the incident are not finally clarified because the Israelis have officially not confirmed anything. The situation remains tense and further developments are possible. It remains to be seen how the conflict between Israel and Iran will develop in the coming days and weeks.

Source: Berliner Morgenpost/OTS