Party crasher in Brandenburg? Vida could stop Wagenknecht!
Party crasher in Brandenburg? Vida could stop Wagenknecht!
in Brandenburg, the political landscape could change significantly. In the constituency of Barnim II, which includes places like Bernau near Berlin, Péter Vida, the top candidate of the Free Voters, is on a course that could not only influence his own future, but also the coalition options in the state parliament.
The special thing about this choice is that Vida may be able to defend his direct mandate, which he already won in 2019. If this succeeds, this would enable the free voters to enter the Potsdam state parliament. This situation could play a key role through the political constellations in coalition formation. It is conceivable that the SPD, CDU and the free voters could form a majority, which would mean for Sahra Wagenknecht and their project.
The five percent hurdle and the basic mandate clause
The so-called five percent hurdle applies in Brandenburg. Parties have to achieve more than five percent of the vote to move into the parliament. Depending on the current surveys, the Greens, the left and the free voters seem to be below this border. The basic question, however, is whether Vida can win its direct mandate. An important aspect is the basic mandate clause: this enables a party to move into the state parliament despite the uninhibitedly reaching of the five percent hurdle, provided that it wins a direct mandate. That makes the situation particularly explosive.In the case of federal elections, parties must negotiate three direct mandates in order to be able to use this clause. However, this significantly lowers the hurdles in a regional context. The free voters in particular could benefit from this regulation, with Hubert Aiwanger already set the course for targeted candidacy on Twitter.
If this strategy opens, we could soon experience a black-red-orange coalition in the state parliament, a scenario that could be realized without the support of the AfD and Wagenknecht.
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